You are going to hear about Cam Ward in your drafts. You are going to hear about Jayden Daniels, C.J. Stroud, and Joe Burrow being streamed from your phone while your league mates mainline ESPN podcasts. You might even hear someone mention Spencer Rattler or Will Levis as a flier.

You are almost certainly not going to hear anyone say "Tyler Shough" with any urgency. And that is exactly why you should be drafting him.

The Numbers Do Not Lie

Shough took over as the Saints starting quarterback in Week 9 last season and immediately started putting up QB1 numbers. Over his nine starts, he finished 12th among all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. During the final five weeks of the regular season, he was the overall QB5.

The efficiency metrics are what make this sustainable, not a small-sample fluke:

  • 11th in completion rate among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts
  • 12th in adjusted completion rate
  • 13th in yards per attempt
  • 17th in Pro Football Focus passing grade

This was a rookie throwing to a subpar supporting cast. Devaughn Vele and Kevin Austin were his No. 3 and No. 4 targets. The Saints ranked 20th in receiving grades and 19th in pass-blocking.

Now imagine him with actual weapons.

Kellen Moore Is a Fantasy QB Multiplier

The primary reason Shough works is the guy calling the plays. Head coach Kellen Moore has now run offenses in seven seasons as OC or head coach, and his quarterbacks consistently produce elite fantasy numbers:

  • Dak Prescott: finished 3rd, 1st, 7th, and 15th across different seasons
  • Justin Herbert: 13th
  • Jalen Hurts: 5th

Moore offenses have ranked top-4 in pace of play and top-8 in total plays in six of those seven seasons. Last year the Saints finished first in the NFL in pace. That tempo creates more possessions, more pass attempts, more fantasy points.

Shough gets a full offseason in this system. He knows the playbook. He knows the timing. And he is about to get better tools to work with.

The Weapon Upgrade Is Real

The Saints spent the 8th overall pick on WR Jordyn Tyson. Injuries limited him in college, but when he was on the field he averaged 69.2 yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game. He joins Chris Olave as a legitimate WR1-WR2 tandem.

Then there is Travis Etienne Jr., signed in free agency. The man has averaged 42 catches and 335 receiving yards per season for his career. He is not just a runner who happens to catch passes. He is a third-down safety blanket who keeps defenses honest.

The offensive line got an upgrade too with the addition of guard David Edwards, who ranked 14th among qualifying guards in PFF pass-blocking grades last season.

The Rushing Floor Matters

Here is what separates Shough from every other deep-league QB stash: he actually runs. Over his nine starts, he had 174 rushing yards (12th among QBs), with 61 of those on designed runs (4th-most). He scored three rushing touchdowns on 3.9 expected TDs.

That inside-the-10 rushing volume is the difference between a QB who scores 18 points in a bad game and one who scores 24. In leagues that do not start two quarterbacks, Shough provides legitimate weekly starter value with a floor most QB2s can only dream about.

The Market Has Not Adjusted

Shough is being drafted as the 19th overall quarterback, going somewhere around pick 112 in average draft position. You are getting a player who finished as the QB5 down the stretch of last season, in one of the most fantasy-friendly offenses in football, with upgraded weapons and a rushing floor, for the price of a handcuff.

Compare that to Cam Ward, who is going QB22 despite having worse rookie efficiency metrics and a less proven system. Or any number of veteran backups being drafted ahead of Shough based on name recognition alone.

The Bottom Line

Draft Tyler Shough in the late rounds. Start him as your default QB2. When he starts putting up 25-point weeks by October and your league mates are still streaming Derek Carr from 2019, you can smile and enjoy the fact that you found something nobody else saw coming.

The Kellen Moore multiplier is real. The weapons are upgraded. The rushing floor is there. And the market has not caught on yet.

It will. But not before your draft day.